Military activity in Donbass has noticeable declined but the tension remains. Russia continues to look for the weak links of the European Union and threatens to stop the natural gas supplies to Ukraine. The UN Security Council heard the report of the OSCE representatives regarding implementation of the Minsk agreements and the Congress of the US debated a draft bill on the military aid grant to Ukraine.
Another Putin’s ally in the EU
Russia continues to actively look for allies among Member States of the European Union. Following Hungary, Cyprus became the object to improve relationships.
The president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin met with his counterpart, the president of Cyprus Nikos Anastasiadis. In the course of the talks, the sides discussed issues of the bilateral cooperation, in particular, in financial, military and technical spheres.
In addition, Anastasiadis noted the increase in Russian investments in Cyprus (one of the most popular offshores for both Ukrainian and Russian businessmen) and underlined that the crisis in Ukraine should be solved solely by means of diplomatic measures, “but not by military means or sanctions.”
“Not only Cyprus expresses its doubts regarding sanctions against Russia. There is a whole group of other countries, which are of the same mind. If they didn’t express their opinions and didn’t do everything they could against those countries, which demand extremely tough sentence for Russia, maybe, the sanctions would be a lot tougher, but they still would bring no result,” the president of Cyprus asserted.
New gas conflict
The conflict situation is caused by the fact that Naftogaz has stopped the gas supplies to the Lugansk and Donetsk regions due to the critical damage of the infrastructure. Because of this, Russia started to supply gas to the territory of the “LNR” and the “DNR” through checkpoints, which are not controlled by Ukraine. Naftogaz refused to pay for these supplies and accused Gazprom of violation of the contract and reduction of the paid volume of gas supplies up to 40%.
In its return, Gazprom asserted: “If new payments don’t arrive from Kiev, of course, we will not be able to continue gas supplies to Ukraine. This is why the main issue that Naftogaz has to solve right now is to find money for the new prepayment. …If money doesn’t arrive in time, there will be no gas supplies.”
The president of the Russian Federation Putin reminded that “it may create a certain threat for the transit to our European partners.”
Countering the threats of Moscow, Kiev responded by the determination to increase gas supplies from Europe. “In February, the agreement was violated by the Russian’s part. In February, gas we paid for was not supplied. The agreement continues to be violated in March. It is obvious that this violation should lead to the increase of supplies to Ukraine from the EU. Already today there are technical possibilities for significant increase of the supplies – through the interconnection between Ukraine and Slovakia,” the head of Naftogaz of Ukraine Andrey Kobolev said.
In result of the conflict, the European Commission initiated the tripartite consultations with the participation of representatives of the Russian Federation, the EU and Ukraine. In the course of the negotiation, it is planned to discuss fulfillment of the obligations and format of the future cooperation of the sides, including the problematic situation with gas supplies to the territories controlled by the “DNR” and the “LNR”.
Military aid for Ukraine
Despite some improvement of the situation in the East of Ukraine, the USA do not see any significant changes in the policy of the Russian Federation regarding Ukraine and continue to consider the implementation of new sanctions. The State Department spokesman Jen Psaki and the representative of the White House Josh Ernest harbor no optimism regarding actions of Russia.
“We are concerned because of the tendency of the Russian Federation to breach those agreements that it just signed. Because of it, Russia risks to be isolated and face additional restrictive measures from the international society,” Ernest announced.
In the Congress of the United States, robust activities to promote the draft bill that implies deliveries of “lethal defense systems” for Ukraine are conducted. According to the republican Mac Thornberry and democrat Adam Smith, provision of such weapons can influence the course of the military actions in favor of Kiev.
The draft bill authorizes the Secretary of Defense to provide assistance including trainings, equipment, weapons of the defensive purpose, logistical support, supply and technical support of the Army of Ukraine.”
NATO commanders in their turn are not sure that military aid grant will help to effectively influence on actions of Russia. At the same time, the commander of NATO forces in Europe Philip Breedlove notes the need to use diplomatic, informational, economic and military means to convince the Ukrainian and Russian authorities in a speedy settlement of the conflict in Donbass.
Compliance of the Minsk Agreements is still relevant. The positive tendency in the form of a more or less complete adherence to the order of “silence” still is not in the full compliances with the agreements. The Russian Federation continues to search for levers of pressure on Europe and Ukraine, using gas and pleading suit with Member States of the EU. The United States still can not decide on military support of Ukraine, ineffectively threatening with serious consequences for Russia in case it does not refuse from its policy. Another emergency meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Ukraine ended by the already familiar concern about the situation in Donbass and silence regarding the issue of possibility of sending peacemakers.
Andrey Trutenko
