With each passing day, the Crimean peninsula occupied by Russia is becoming more and more a military base – the number of troops and military equipment is increasing rapidly, there is a gradual equipment modernization and the Crimean people have already got used to wake up with the sounds of military aircraft exercises. However, the militarization of the Crimean peninsula is a threat to not only Ukraine and Black Sea countries. Increased Russian military presence in Crimea coupled with imperial ambitions of today’s Russia poses a threat to the whole of Europe.
Russian armed forces in Crimea: before and after annexation
Crimea was always of military-strategic interest of the Kremlin: both in the Soviet period, when the peninsula had the status of an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ and as part of Ukraine – Russia obsessively defended its right to have a naval base in Crimea not without reason. Therefore, having set up its authority over Crimea de-facto, Russian is increasing its military potential at a record pace.
According to the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, there were 12,500 soldiers, 22 aircrafts, 37 helicopters, 26 ships and 2 submarines as well as 100 units of armored mobile machines deployed in Crimea as of January, 2014.
In March 2016, two years after the annexation, the number of Russian soldiers doubled – up to almost 24,000, the number of tanks and armored vehicles increased by 6.8 times, artillery systems – by 7.2 times, combat air forces – by 2.2 times. In addition, there are coastal missile systems and other military equipment appeared in Crimea.
In particular, Russia deployed the newest Pantsir-1 surface-to-air missile systems designed to affect both air and ground targets, fire at military and industrial facilities in Crimea. There are Bastion anti-ship missile systems that can attack not only ships, but also ground targets while ensuring the protection of the coastal zone of 600 km deployed on the coast.
Military air forces are represented by Su-27SM and Su-30SM fighters, Su-24M bombers, Su-25SM attack planes, Ka-52, Mi-28N and Mi-8 ATMSh helicopters.
However, this is only the beginning: Russia is going to continue increasing the number of its troops in occupied Crimea. According to Russian military plans, the number of troops should be increased up to 43,000 people, the number of tanks will be increased three-fold – up to 100 units (from existing 30 units), missile launchers – up to 50 and helicopters – up to 150 units by 2025.
Nuclear weapons in Crimea
In addition to deploying conventional weapons, Russian has all the possibilities to transfer nuclear weapons in Crimea, by using which it will pose a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Europe.
“Nuclear weapons are standard for all first rank ships. All cruise missiles can carry a nuclear warhead and these vessels are designed to use nuclear weapons. So now nothing prevents Russia from placing nuclear warheads with range characteristics of 1500-2000 km on ships in Crimea,” the expert of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Mikhail Samus explains.
According to Ukrainian military experts, placing Iskander missile systems will expose to a risk not only the Ukrainian territory, but also will be a real threat to Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey as well as the Caucasus, Central and Eastern Europe countries.
Besides missile systems, Russia is planning to deploy Tu-22M3 bombers with a combat radius capability of up to 2400 km and missile range characteristics of up 250-500 km at the air base in Gvardeyskoye village (near Simferopol). In such a case, the Kremlin will have enough opportunities to threaten the whole of Europe.
Russian naval forces
Admiral Grigorovich patrol vessel, Russian Federation
Until recently, Russia did not pay serious attention to the upgrading of the Black Sea Fleet not only because it was bound by the Treaty with Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is not a priority for Russia – ocean naval bases are much more important. The Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed this fact by having identified northern and far eastern areas as priority areas for development of naval forces at a press conference on December 17, 2015. Therefore, of course, the Black Sea Fleet will be upgraded but most likely, it will be done with whatever funds remain.
In 2014, the Russians captured Ukrainian naval vessels and it seems that they are not going to give them back to Ukraine. This includes 11 combat ships and a wide range of auxiliary ships. By the way, the Ukrainian corvette “Ternopol” was one of the newest ships in the Black Sea until recently, as it was floated out in 2002.
In 2015, two new submarines were transferred to Sevastopol – “Novorossiysk” and “Rostov-on-Don”, and in June 2016, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was increased with the Admiral Grigorovich patrol vessel equipped with the Kalibr missile system. It is expected that the same vessel “Admiral Essen” transferred to the fleet on June 7 will arrive in Sevastopol by the end of 2016. However, the upgrading can be finished with that – the third frigate “Admiral Makarov” floated out in September 2015 is still being tested. Construction of the second range of frigates is still a big question due to a lack of main gas turbine power systems, which were previously purchased in Ukraine.
Crimean testing area
Having annexed Crimea, Russia received not only am important strategic base, from which it can threaten the whole of Europe, but also a large number of unique testing areas, where it can test various types of weapons. Various flight trainings, in which almost the entire Russian Aerospace Forces are involved by rotation, are mostly conducted on the peninsula.
“Trainings in Crimea are conducted on a rotating basis, so it seems that all Russian aircrafts (attack planes, bombers and helicopters) are tested in Crimea. All Russian military aircraft pilots carried out ‘run-in tests’ of equipment in this region. They trained techniques regarding the Bosporus, Romania, Turkey and, of course, Ukraine. They trained techniques, which are necessary to implement tasks during specific operations – for example, in the Black Sea Straits,” Samus says.
Tu-22M3 long-range bomber aircraft
Russia doesn’t hide its goals regarding using unique possibilities of Crimea to test aircrafts and other types of weapons. In particular, it is planned to turn the Chauda testing area located near the Opuk natural reserve into a year-round center to train Russian Aerospace Forces and test long-range bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads there.
“The military training area will operate all year round, pilots will work there at any time of the day or night in all aircraft types. Even the Tu-22M3 (bomber capable of carrying nuclear warheads) will be tested here,” the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Viktor Bondarev said.
‘Russian’ Crimea as a threat to Europe
The annexation of Crimea changed the power balance in the Black Sea: Russia received not only an important strategic base, where it can openly threaten not only Ukraine and Black Sea countries, but also the whole of Europe. Crimea as a military base of Russia is a great tool to blackmail the West that tries to avoid open confrontation, trying to preserve the status quo at any cost.
“In other words, it is such a blackmail when everything is done demonstratively: nuclear warheads are took aboard in Novorossiysk, then the ship goes in Sevastopol and then again in Novorossiysk. That is, they demonstrate, for example, the Americans that there is a nuclear weapon, which the ABM system (anti-ballistic missile system – editor’s note) can’t counteract, near their bases in Romania,” the Ukrainian expert Mikhail Samus says.
Bastion missile system defence zone
Nevertheless, the peninsula’s militarization poses the greatest threat, of course, to Ukraine. This is not only the case of landing operations or other offensive actions from the territory of the occupied peninsula. Another serious threat is that Russia can organize a full blockade of the entire sea coast of Ukraine that our country is not yet able to prevent.
The situation is also serious for the NATO military unit, the strategy of which didn’t include a special role for the Black Sea. However, due to threats from Russia, the Alliance reconsiders own positions and is ready to strengthen its military presence not only in Eastern Europe, but also on the Black Sea.
“We have decided to strengthen our presence in the eastern part of our Alliance. NATO will deploy four multinational battalions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland on a rotational basis… We will also take measures to strengthen the protection and containment in the Black Sea region,” the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said summing up the results of the June meeting of NATO Defence Ministers.
Therefore, the Romania’s initiative to set up a permanent NATO Naval Forces grouping in the Black Sea has a chance to be approved at the Warsaw NATO summit that will be held this July.
“Today, Romania proposes to establish a headquarter of a navy grouping in the Black Seas and solve the problem in such a way that the ships of NATO Black Sea countries will be deployed on a permanent basis and the ship of other NATO member countries will come on a rotational basis and stay for two weeks, for example. In this way, the Alliance will demonstrate Russia that it is overlooking its actions on the southern flank by deploying permanent structures there – both at sea and on land,” the Ukrainian experts says.
Crimea is purposely turned from the tourist region into a military base, in the ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier 2’, by using which Russia hopes to realize its imperial ambitions on expanding its sphere of influence in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. The multipolar world’s model makes this task a bit easier and creates a room for maneuvers when contacting with Western countries. However, the West will have to stand up to Russia eventually. But to be honest, the later it happens, the higher price the world will have to pay for the Russian aggressive policy.
