Peace in Ukraine still hasn’t come a week after the Normandy format agreements in Minsk. Each party interprets the agreements reached in its own way. The United Nations Security Council adopts a resolution on Ukraine while Debaltseve is attacked by fire. Russia is looking for allies in Europe and Ukraine is asking the West to send peacemakers.
A weak link in Europe
On Tuesday, the president of Russia Vladimir Putin came on an official visit Budapest, where he met with the Hungarian prime-minister Viktor Orban. Unlike his western colleagues, Orban is distinguished by his loyalty to Putin while showing the desire to have “correct and balanced” relations with Russia. Such a friendly attitude of the Hungarian leader towards the President of Russian during the conflict in Ukraine with the participation of the Russian mercenaries is a surprise for Europe. On the one hand, Orban visits Kiev and Hungary supports sanctions against Russia but on the other hand, the prime-minister openly flirts with Moscow.
One of the main results of the Vladimir Putin’s visit to Budapest was a political decision to continue the transit Russian gas through the territory of Hungary. In particular, the parties agreed “on changes of some terms of the continuing gas contract (operating gas contract)” and also to increase a gas volume in the Hungarian storages. Orban supported the construction of a new pipeline to Turkey. “It would be a good investment for Hungary if the Turkish gas is supplied through Greece, Macedonia, Serbia to Hungary. I trust the agreements we made with the Russian president,” the prime-minister said. And he also refused the reverse-flow deliveries of gas to Ukraine saying that Hungary “will desist from reselling the Russian gas to Ukraine.”
The UN Security Council on Ukraine
Russia made another important step continuing its decisive actions on the international arena: on February 17, 2015, at its initiative the UN Security Council adopted a resolution, in which “the package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements” was approved and the Declaration of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany in support of the “package of measures” adopted on February 12, 2015 in Minsk was welcomed. The UN Security Council called on all the parties to the complete performance of the “Package of measures” including a comprehensive ceasefire provided by it.
In addition, the Security Council members expressed serious concerns about the continuing attacks on Debaltseve. In particular, the U.S. Representative to the United Nations Samantha Power said that “Russia speaks of peace but heats up the conflict. Russia signs agreements but does everything to interrupt them. Russia stands for the sovereignty of countries but then acts as if there are no borders.”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine also condemned the gross violation of the Minsk agreements having called the introduction of the draft resolution by the Russian Federation that violates the obligations assumed during the negotiations in Minsk “the sheer cynicism”. At the same time Ukraine called on the international community to take all measures to ensure the immediate and comprehensive ceasefire and unconditional implementation of the Minsk Protocol of September 5, 2014, the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014 and the Minsk “Package of measures” of February 12, 2015, by Russia and the terrorists controlled by it.
Peaceful armament
Despite the active peace-keeping activities of Russia at the United Nations and Vladimir Putin’s statements about a significant decrease of combat activity in Donbass, provisions of the Minsk agreement are still ignored. The situation in the east of Ukraine remains tense, the rebels actively keep the positions of the Ukrainian troops under fire, the point concerning the withdrawal of heavy weapons is disregarded and the representatives of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission are not allowed to come to Debaltseve.
According to the Information Resistance group, arms and ammunition are still coming to the territories controlled by the separatists from the direction of Russia. In the words of the Russians themselves, there is the reinforcement of military presence in Crimea. “Unprecedented decisions to strengthen the defensive capacity of the peninsula were made. Today Crimea is an impregnable fortress,” the Representative of the President of Russian Federation in Crimea Oleg Belaventsev said having commented that “missile submarines of Project 636 held a course for Crimea.”
Hope for peacemakers
Active military build-up in the armistice lines and Crimea gives rise to fully justified concerns of the Ukrainian authorities.
The question of the military aid from the United States remains unsettled. The West understands that such a step will mean an official intervention in the conflict. It will create an even greater resonance in the international arena and allow Russia to openly supply armaments to the east of Ukraine. This scenario destroys hopes of the European leaders for stabilization of the situation in Donbass.
Thus, the President Poroshenko made a proposal regarding the peacekeeping force in order to ensure peace in Ukraine. Ukraine decided to appeal to the UN and the EU with request to deploy a peacemaking operation in Ukraine. The UN peacekeeping mission should be deployed along the demarcation line in Donbass and uncontrolled sections of the state border with the Russian Federation.
“We see the need for introduction of this peacekeeping force to ensure peace in Donbass and control of the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. We consider the future EU mission in the course of the common security and defense policy as the best scheme of a peacekeeping operation,” the President of Ukraine said.
Will Europe agree to provide its soldiers and in doing so to participate more actively in resolving the conflict in Ukraine? It is difficult to answer this question. But the fact that the Russian party is not interested in that is clear even now. The Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations Vitaliy Churkin said that the decision to send peacemakers puts the intentions of Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk agreements in doubt. It may happen that Russia will use the weak links of the EU such as Hungary in order to stop this initiative of the Ukrainian authorities as well.
The ongoing concerns of the West about the violations of peace agreements and a lack of concrete actions suggests that Europe is afraid of being involved in the war and hopes that it is still can be avoided at the present point in time. It will be found out in the very near future whether the European peacemakers will manage to find a peaceful argument against the force or more drastic measures will be taken.
Andrey Trutenko
