When the Russian troops entered the territory of South Ossetia for “provision of fraternal assistance” and pacification of Georgia in August 2008, experts started to say that Crimea was going to be the next one. These words became prophetic. Back in 2008 as well as in 2014 the world responded by a deep concern to the violation the international law by Russia. Although, it is quite possible, if Russia was stopped then, it would be possible to avoid the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass.
Ossetia: the status promotion game
In Russian Empire the Ossetian lands were part of Georgia, the Soviet authorities has divided Ossetia into two parts: the North one and the South one, drawing the line along the mountain chain to make it simple. North Ossetia became part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, and the South one – the Georgian SSR only as an autonomous region. However, at that period no one actually cared about that, although until the death of Stalin it was stated “the South Ossetian” and “the North Ossetian” in passports in the field “nationality”.
Everything started to change in the end of the 1980s on the back of the ethnic self-awareness growth in still Soviet republics. Ossetians, just like inhabitants of Abkhazia and Transdniestria, decided to use the auspicious moment and receive the status of autonomous republic as a part of the Georgian SSR: the Council of the people’s deputies has adopted the corresponding resolution on November 10, 1989. Georgia did not recognize that document.
On March 31, 1991, most of the population voted for “restoration of the state independence” (restoration of the Georgian Democratic Republic as it was in 1921, in other words, before it became part of the USSR) at the referendum in Georgia. Ossetia, on the contrary, decided not only to remain part of the USSR but to achieve the status of the union republic: on September 20, 1990 people’s deputies of the South Ossetia autonomous region promoted their status up to the republic as a part of the USSR and in doing so declared secession from Georgia.
Ossetian transit: from Georgia to independence
Georgian response to the solution of the Ossetian deputies was harsh: on December 10, the South-Ossetian autonomous region has been abolished by decision of the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Georgia and Georgian subdivisions of the police and National Guard entered the capital Tskhinvali. However, the Ossetians didn’t waste any time forming self-defense forces and managed to resist the Georgian militants. The forceful scenario failed but the Georgian authorities started energy blockage, having disconnected the region from the power supply. These measures proved to be efficient: on May 4, 1991 the council of South Ossetia deputies of all levels adopts resolution to return the status of the autonomous region. But Georgia refuses to recognize this resolution referring to the abolishment of the autonomy at all. While having failed to find the right words to continue the dialog, the parties moved to the language of gunfire.
On September 1, 1991, Ossetian deputies declared the formation of the Republic of South Ossetia… as a part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. The Georgian parliament refused to recognize this step as an eligible one again. On December 21, 1991, already after the collapse of the USSR, the Supreme Council of Republic of South Ossetia adopts the Declaration of independence.
Fate of the republic has been finally decided on the referendum on January 19, 1992. The questions that have been put to vote were painfully similar to the ones that were offered for the Crimeans in March 2014: independence and accession to Russia. Considering the fact that the Georgian people that according to the census of 1989 reached 29% of the population of the republic either put the referendum under boycott or left the conflict zone by that time, it wasn’t hard to foretell the results: over 98% responded “yes” to both of questions. Georgia refused to recognize the results and the armed hostilities continued. Refugee flaws rushed to the North – to Russia and to the South – to Georgia.
On June 24, 1992 the heads of Russia and Georgia – Eltsin and Shevardnadze – signed the “Agreement on principles of the peaceful regulation of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict” that implied ceasefire, withdrawal of troops, disbanding of the self-defense forces and creation of the Joint Control Commission to control all these actions. Russia also had to withdraw its engineering troops and helicopter regiment. In July the tripartite peacekeeping forces (Russian, Ossetin and Georgian battalions) entered the conflict zone. Armed hostilities passed off and parties sat down at the negotiation table.
Between war and peace
On October 1995 during the first meeting of the Georgian and Ossetian delegations the decision has been made to cancel the Georgian act on abolishment of the autonomy of the South-Ossetian region and resolution of deputies of South-Ossetia on secession from Georgia. On March 4, 1997 full-scale negotiations stared. However, they met with no success: the parts turned out not to be ready to compromise.
In 2002 Eduard Kokoity, who was known for his anti-Georgian rhetoric and applied to Russian authorities with request of accession of the republic to Russia by support of the local parliament, has been elected as the president. Mikheil Saakashvili, who promised to achieve restoration of the unity of the country, won the presidential election in 2014 in Georgia. In its turn, Russia sends peacemakers to the territory of South Ossetia and starts activity on distribution of the Russian citizenship, when 8000 people could obtain a Russian passport in 24 hours. As the result, by 2006 80% of the population of the republic became citizens of the “great and mighty” Russia that was ready to protect them at any time.
The tension in the region was growing step by step and reached its culmination in 2008. Russia and Georgia deployed forces to the border with Ossetia, there was the war of nerves that boiled over into real armed hostilities. The Russian troops intruded in South Ossetia on August 8, 2008 and cleared the territory of the republic from the Georgian army soon enough and then marched on the Georgian territory seizing the cities of Zugdidi and Gori and “forcing” Saakashvili to peace.
Georgia wasn’t ready for the war with Russia. The peace agreement, according to which the withdrawal of troops to the initial positions and discussing status of not only South Ossetia but also Abkhazia have been required, has been signed through the intermediary of the French president Sarkozy.
“International” recognition
On August 26, 2008 Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, following it Venezuela, Nicaragua and Nauru did the same. Companions in misfortune – Abkhazia, Transdniestria (the TMR) and Nagorny Karabakh recognized the Ossetian statehood even sooner.
All the other states keep on considering South Ossetia as a part of Georgia, where the “Law on the occupied territories” – Abkhazia, South Ossetia, where economic activities and free travel are limited, air and railway travels are forbidden., was adopted.
It is remarkable that on February 18, 2015 the agreement on border between the Russian Federation and South Ossetia was signed, by means of which Russia virtually politely refused the Ossetians to reunite, condemning the republic to always be the status of the buffer area.
The end justifies the means
The South Ossetian scenario is truly possible to consider a rehearsal of the Crimean one, and then the Donetsk one, where many factors intertangled in a weird way: the international one – the West didn’t pass the test on reliability of the international law in South Ossetia, what let the Russians loose in Crimea; the political one – Russia stood for protection of its citizens in Ossetia and the “Russian world” in Crimea and Donbass; the military one – in both cases the military aggression is observed: the open one against Georgia in 2008, masked under the “men in green” one in Crimea in 2014 and thinly veiled one in Donbass.
Three crucial factors can be named among the differences: first of all, Crimea is the only region, which Russia agreed to access (it seems, the historical factor, which is very popular in Russia right nowadays, and the “sacredness” of the peninsula played their role). All the other republics remained unrecognized. Secondly, it is the ethnic aspect that worked out in Abkhazia and Ossetia and the factor of the “Russian world” (the Russian language), which was more specific for Crimea, the TMR and Donbass. And finally, the number of victims in Ukraine is not comparable with number of victims of the prior conflicts. In results of the three conflicts the total number of dead reached around 10 – 12 thousand people. The biggest number of refugees has been registered in Abkhazia – 250 thousand people, most of which were Georgians, who left the republic. In results of the war in Ossetia in 2008, over 30 thousand people moved to Russia, 15 – to Georgia and also 70 thousand people left the Georgian cities during the Russian invasion. According to the UNN data, 5617 people (1432 people of them were military) perished in Ukraine within the period from April 2014 until February 2015. Number of refugees already reached a million and a half.
However, all the scenarios are directed for realization of a single goal – to establish Russian control over all the post-Soviet space that Russia considers as a zone of its interests. In order to achieve this goal, Russian politicians are ready to make any sacrifices among Russian and non-Russian population.
